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JPMorgan Continue To Expect Easing To Commence In July

CHILE
  • Following the release of May inflation data JPMorgan have noted that all the relevant macroeconomic reports in recent weeks have aligned with the idea of disinflation ahead.
  • The accumulation of evidence consistent with the consolidation of the inflation convergence process to the CBC target is what the Board needs so to avoid passive real monetary tightening ahead, what could prove extremely costly from the activity standpoint.
  • JPM thus continue to expect the CBC to start easing in July 3Q23, with a 50bp policy rate cut. Their baseline contemplates the policy rate down to 8.25% by December, and 4.75% by 3Q24.

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