MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Annual Inflation Rises To 4.87% In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

US NFIB NOV SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 101.7

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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JPMorgan: Expect Easing To Begin In March

MEXICO
  • The key takeaway in today’s policy statement in which the board voted unanimously to keep rates unchanged at 11.25% was the tweak to the key guidance, a clear shift from an outright hawkish bias to a rare breed that combines dove feathers with hawk claws in which the board seems ready to pull the trigger on cuts, but still emphasized upside risks to inflation. In short, the board will remain vigilant, but it is preparing for its first cut since February 2021. JPMorgan maintain their view that Banxico will start easing in March, bringing rates to 10% by the end of 2024.
  • To JPM, it seems the Bank is trying to communicate that even though expectations remain above the target and there are upside risks to inflation, the disinflation process continues, with the Bank even removing its emphasis on core services performance — an upside risk that we have been warning about for a while.
  • A word of caution. If core inflation remains a headache (JPM’s forecasts, different from Banxico’s, imply this could be the case) and the board is cornered to emphasize once again any specific concerns, JPM would not be surprised if the Board takes a little longer to ease than they expect. Finally, whether the Fed factor is starting to permeate the board remains to be seen.

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