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JPMorgan Look For Softer CPI Details

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Released on Thursday, JPMorgan see core CPI at 0.17% M/M in July for a similar print to June, pushing the Y/Y down a tenth to 4.7%.
  • They see rent measures continuing to drive overall inflation higher even though the pace of rental inflation has slowed recently - tenants’ rent seen 0.48% and OER 0.46%.
  • Apparel seen increasing 0.3% in July, continuing the recent monthly pace of inflation, but they look for softer details in many of the other main categories related to the core CPI.
  • Medical care prices have been close to flat in recent months and they forecast no change for July, whilst communication prices should continue the trend lower with a 0.3% decline.
  • Lodging prices have been volatile lately but they expect -0.8% to follow the 2.0% June drop based in part on some related industry data. Airfares also likely fell again in July (pushing broader public transport prices -4.7%), whilst industry data also signal that new vehicle prices slipped -0.2% in July and used vehicle prices fell -1.7%.
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