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JPMorgan on Argentina Midterm Elections

ARGENTINA
  • The midterm election results confirmed the punishment to the government despite the fiscal impulse following the primaries. The legislative power distribution changes in a material way, with the Peronist Party losing the Senate quorum (majority) for the first time since 1983.
  • In their view, the probability of heterodox radicalization with quasi-complete financial autarky ahead (i.e., Argentina going into arrears to the IMF) has diminished after the midterm results.
  • The most likely scenario could be characterized as a cocktail of heterodox policies combined with brushstrokes of limited fiscal consolidation. That is, a minimum policy effort destined to secure an agreement with the IMF, yet insufficient to secure a credible downward inflation trend and thus sustainable growth on the foundation of a growing capital stock.
  • The first reaction of the government came as a pre-recorded message of President Fernandez calling for a national dialogue to build a consensus agenda, and announcing the intention to present before Congress in the first week of December a multi-annual economic program so to accelerate the negotiations with the IMF.
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