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JPMorgan on New PM/Cabinet: Expect Tensions To Linger

PERU
  • The Castillo administration continues to struggle, with the political gambits so far proving unable to provide some sort of medium-term stability. It is against this backdrop that, with only six and a half months in office, Castillo has appointed his fourth Premier.
  • Aníbal Torres has served as Justice Minister since Castillo took office, and has proved somewhat controversial. In one of his latest statements while serving as Justice Minister, he accused lawmakers of "hiding mistakes," unlike the government, and of seeking "to pave the way" to impeach President Castillo.
  • Torres now needs to gain the confidence vote of the same Congress he has criticized, which will be a challenging task, in JPMorgan’s opinion. The new cabinet must seek the Congress vote of confidence within the next 30 days.
  • Castillo has now appointed a substantial number of 48 ministers in less than seven months, a clear signal, in JPM’s view, of the reigning instability. Four political parties have representation in this new cabinet, representing up to 49 lawmakers, enough to block a vacancy motion.
  • JPM expect political tensions to linger, with the gridlock between the government and Congress preventing reforms while keeping regulatory risks elevated.
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