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JPMorgan on Peru/BPRC

PERU
  • Peru’s external situation amid the global shock is similar to Chile’s, but stronger as it has oil and gas. Yet, against the prevailing political and regulatory uncertainty, the potential for domestic demand and, in particular, capex to underperform the levels suggested by the high relevant commodity prices is likely to persist. JPM keep their 2022 GDP growth estimate at 2.8%y/y.
  • On inflation dynamics ahead, oil and crop prices (corn and wheat, in particular) will likely add upside pressure on energy and food prices. JPM now forecast headline inflation to converge to 4.3% by December, a 50bp upward revision from the previous 3.8%.
  • On monetary policy, given the negative supply shock and the expected performance of the currency given the BCRP’s active FX intervention as well as the aforementioned assumptions, JPM now expect the BCRP to continue hiking the policy rate to 4.5% in 2Q22, with a low conviction call for an additional 50bp in 3Q22.
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