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JPMorgan Say Stressing Flexibility Ahead Will Be Key For Banxico

MEXICO
  • JPMorgan believe available information suggests the bank will keep its options open in this week’s statement, with a November cut still feasible if inflation continues to grind lower, in line with JPM’s forecasts.
  • JPM expect annual inflation to reach 4.4% in 3Q23, with Banxico forecasting 5% in June. For core inflation, they expect 6.1% and Banxico, 6.2%. The cautious rhetoric in June suggests the board will only marginally revise downwards its forecast path, eyeing inflation around 4.5% by year-end, with core unchanged at 5%.
  • JPMorgan expect a unanimous decision but believe there is space to turn rather neutral, acknowledging that acting between November and early 2024 is still feasible. In this context, the risk of signalling “on hold for long” should not be disregarded either, but stressing flexibility ahead will be key.
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