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JPMorgan Ups Hiking Forecast, Risk Of More Next Year If Jobs Don't Cool

FED

JPMorgan raises their Fed hiking forecast: 75bp next week (unch), 50bp in Nov (was 25); 25bp in Dec (unch) but now expect 25bp in Jan-Feb to a terminal 4.00-4.25%.

  • JPM sees the downshift to 25bp given the lagged effects of hikes meaning the Fed doesn't want to overshoot. But further 25bp hikes past Feb would be expected "if the labor market isn’t materially cooling" by then.

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