JPY: Assessing Chances For Brexit Deal

GBP/JPY has inched higher after the 50-DMA crossed above the 100-DMA, with Brexit/coronavirus matters still in the driving seat. The rate last operates at Y138.66, 17 pips better off.

• Despite occasional forays through this level, the rate has generally held above the 23.6% retracement of the Mar 18 - Sep 1 rally at Y138.32 over the last month or so. A break below there & yesterday's low of Y138.00 would turn focus to Dec 21/11 lows of Y136.97/136.80. Bulls need a rally above Dec 21 high of Y139.52 before taking aim at Dec 17/4 highs of Y140.45/140.71.
• EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier said Tuesday that London & Brussels are ready for "a final push" in their talks, as they are trying to reach agreement as soon as today. Fishing rights have re-emerged as the main sticking point, with both sides wrestling over the scale of the reduction of EU fisheries' catch & the length of the transition period for fisheries to adjust to new rules.
• ITV's Peston tweeted that a deal was possible on Wednesday after movement had been made on fishing rights. Hours earlier, Peston suggested that there was no change of a deal before Christmas.
• Elsewhere, France agreed to lift a closure of travel routes into the UK, imposed to prevent the spread of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant across the English Channel.
• Focus over the coming days will fall on the Brexit saga.