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JPY Bounce Follows Broad Risk-Off Thursday, Alleviates Overbought Condition

FOREX
  • The JPY sits firmer against all others in G10, with the broad risk-off theme evident in Thursday's weakness across equities continuing to filter through to G10 currency markets. USD/JPY has made a clean break below the Y144.00 handle and is extending losses to 142.95, the lowest since Jun23.
  • The pullback in USD/JPY has helped alleviate technically overbought conditions, which were evident across late June/early July. The 14-day RSI has now slipped to ~55, after touching 76 points in recent weeks.
  • The USD and EUR sit modestly softer, although volatilty is contained so far, keeping EUR/USD and GBP/USD well within recent ranges.
  • USD/CNH has traded through the Thursday low, putting CNH on the front foot ahead of NY hours. Lows printed earlier this week at 7.2181 provide the first downside target, and would provide further evidence that markets taking note of the authorities' attempts to stabilise the currency after broad losses across Q2.
  • Focus Friday rests on the US payrolls report, with markets expecting the US to have added 225k jobs over the month of June, pressing the unemployment lower by 0.1ppts to 3.6%.
  • The Canadian release also crosses, but an increase in unemployment is expected to 5.3, with 20k net change in employment. Central bank speakers due on Friday include ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Mann and ECB's Nagel.
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