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JPY: Focus On Whether 50-day EMA Downside Break Can Be Sustained, Busy Data Day

JPY
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USD/JPY tracks near 151.50/55 in early Friday dealings. In Thursday trade we got close to 152.00, which is near the simple 200-day MA, while recent lows (150.46) on Wed, were on the simple 50-day MA. Yen is still up over 2% so far this week, the best G10 performer so far. 

  • In terms of technicals, USD/JPY has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs recently. Attention continues to be on a clear break of the 50-day average (currently near 151.54, so close to current spot), which would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 150.19 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the topside, the bull trigger is now much higher at 156.75, the Nov 15 high and clearance of this level would be needed to confirm a resumption of the technical uptrend.
  • Today, the local data calendar is heavy, headlined by the Nov Tokyo CPI print. The market expects a 2.2%y/y headline outcome (versus 1.8% prior). The ex fresh food and ex fresh food, energy measures are expected to print slightly firmer than the Oct outcome. The data will be in focus given signs of resilient/firmer domestic led service prices recently in the lead up to the Dec BoJ meeting
  • Also out are the Oct jobless rate figures, retail sales and IP, while later on housing starts and consumer confidence prints.
  • Late yesterday, it was reported the cabinet would approve the extra budget (¥13.9trln), which is slightly larger than the previous year's. (see this BBG link). 
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USD/JPY tracks near 151.50/55 in early Friday dealings. In Thursday trade we got close to 152.00, which is near the simple 200-day MA, while recent lows (150.46) on Wed, were on the simple 50-day MA. Yen is still up over 2% so far this week, the best G10 performer so far. 

  • In terms of technicals, USD/JPY has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs recently. Attention continues to be on a clear break of the 50-day average (currently near 151.54, so close to current spot), which would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 150.19 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the topside, the bull trigger is now much higher at 156.75, the Nov 15 high and clearance of this level would be needed to confirm a resumption of the technical uptrend.
  • Today, the local data calendar is heavy, headlined by the Nov Tokyo CPI print. The market expects a 2.2%y/y headline outcome (versus 1.8% prior). The ex fresh food and ex fresh food, energy measures are expected to print slightly firmer than the Oct outcome. The data will be in focus given signs of resilient/firmer domestic led service prices recently in the lead up to the Dec BoJ meeting
  • Also out are the Oct jobless rate figures, retail sales and IP, while later on housing starts and consumer confidence prints.
  • Late yesterday, it was reported the cabinet would approve the extra budget (¥13.9trln), which is slightly larger than the previous year's. (see this BBG link).