MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +5.4% SA THRU DEC 06 WK

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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FOREX: JPY on Front Foot, Vols Show Market Gearing for Payrolls

FOREX
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  • JPY trades well early Thursday, stronger against most others in G10 as markets continue to speculate over the likelihood of a December hike at the Bank of Japan. Pricing for a 25bps rate hike backtracked sharply yesterday on the back of an MNI policy report that pointed to political pressures potentially delaying an imminent tightening cycle. Overnight, BoJ's Nakamura injected further two-way risk, by not ruling out a rate hike in December - counter to his usually dovish stance on rates.
  • USD/JPY was marked lower to 149.66 overnight, before rebounding well to trade in only minor negative territory headed through to the NY crossover. The greenback is generally weaker, providing some reprieve for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and others, but recent ranges are largely being respected, with volumes on the light side of average.
  • In vol space, overnight implied G10 rates have been creeping higher - particularly in the EUR. EUR/USD overnight implied printed above 15 points this morning for only the third time this year (ahead of the Presidential election, and amid French political uncertainty).
  • Markets look toward the US and Canadian trade balance data, as well as weekly claims and the Canadian Ivey PMI for November. The speaker schedule sees BoE's Greene and Fed's Barkin.
  • Beyond that, markets creep toward the November payrolls print at which consensus expects 215k jobs added over the month, and the whisper number has been creeping higher toward that mark this week - last at 200k, from 170k at the beginning of December. 
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  • JPY trades well early Thursday, stronger against most others in G10 as markets continue to speculate over the likelihood of a December hike at the Bank of Japan. Pricing for a 25bps rate hike backtracked sharply yesterday on the back of an MNI policy report that pointed to political pressures potentially delaying an imminent tightening cycle. Overnight, BoJ's Nakamura injected further two-way risk, by not ruling out a rate hike in December - counter to his usually dovish stance on rates.
  • USD/JPY was marked lower to 149.66 overnight, before rebounding well to trade in only minor negative territory headed through to the NY crossover. The greenback is generally weaker, providing some reprieve for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and others, but recent ranges are largely being respected, with volumes on the light side of average.
  • In vol space, overnight implied G10 rates have been creeping higher - particularly in the EUR. EUR/USD overnight implied printed above 15 points this morning for only the third time this year (ahead of the Presidential election, and amid French political uncertainty).
  • Markets look toward the US and Canadian trade balance data, as well as weekly claims and the Canadian Ivey PMI for November. The speaker schedule sees BoE's Greene and Fed's Barkin.
  • Beyond that, markets creep toward the November payrolls print at which consensus expects 215k jobs added over the month, and the whisper number has been creeping higher toward that mark this week - last at 200k, from 170k at the beginning of December.