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JPY Stages Solid Bounce, But Outlook Remains Fragile

FOREX
  • USD/JPY is retreating off this week's multi-decade cycle high, putting the rate back below the Y136.50 in what's likely to be only a brief respite. USDJPY broke to new cycle highs this week, with price clearing short-term resistance at 135.59, Jun 15 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
  • The greenback also trades well, with the USD benefiting from the general rolling over of equity prices after Tuesday's corrective bounce.
  • A downleg in oil prices has undermined sentiment somewhat, with WTI and Brent futures off around 5% apiece as Biden is set to call on Congress to suspend the Federal fuel tax in an effort to help with record high oil prices. Commodity-tied currencies are suitably lower, with AUD and NZD among the poorest performers Wednesday.
  • Oil weakness is dragging on European oil & gas names, while the likes of ExxonMobil and Chevron are trading markedly lower pre-market. This puts US futures on track for a lower open of 1.5-2.0% later today.
  • Canadian CPI data for May is the focus going forward, with the Y/Y rate seen accelerating to 7.3% from 6.8% previously. Eurozone consumer confidence data also crosses as well as speeches from Fed's Powell - delivering his semi-annual testimony, Barkin, Evans and Harker.
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  • USD/JPY is retreating off this week's multi-decade cycle high, putting the rate back below the Y136.50 in what's likely to be only a brief respite. USDJPY broke to new cycle highs this week, with price clearing short-term resistance at 135.59, Jun 15 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
  • The greenback also trades well, with the USD benefiting from the general rolling over of equity prices after Tuesday's corrective bounce.
  • A downleg in oil prices has undermined sentiment somewhat, with WTI and Brent futures off around 5% apiece as Biden is set to call on Congress to suspend the Federal fuel tax in an effort to help with record high oil prices. Commodity-tied currencies are suitably lower, with AUD and NZD among the poorest performers Wednesday.
  • Oil weakness is dragging on European oil & gas names, while the likes of ExxonMobil and Chevron are trading markedly lower pre-market. This puts US futures on track for a lower open of 1.5-2.0% later today.
  • Canadian CPI data for May is the focus going forward, with the Y/Y rate seen accelerating to 7.3% from 6.8% previously. Eurozone consumer confidence data also crosses as well as speeches from Fed's Powell - delivering his semi-annual testimony, Barkin, Evans and Harker.