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JPY Unwinds Bounce, BoJ On Tap Today

JPY

The yen unwound all of its early outperformance post the Asia close yesterday. USD/JPY got to a high of 137.16 during NY trade, but corrected lower into the close. The pair sits back at 136.80 currently, still around 100pips higher than yesterday's lows. A rise in core yields weighed on yen, with US cash Tsy yields around 8-11bps higher across the curve. The main focus today will be the BoJ meeting.

  • No change is expected from the meeting, but renewed market focus is evident after recent comments from BoJ board member Tamura re: the need for a policy framework review at the “right time,” along with several hawkish source reports have sharpened market focus on a move away from current policy settings (see our full preview here).
  • Overnight implied USD/JPY vols are above 21%, but the 1 week and 1 month implied levels paint a more benign picture. Both measures are up off recent lows but remain comfortably below recent highs.
  • Topside resistance still appears around the 138.00 level, while the 200-day EMA comes in at 135.23.
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