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JPY: USD/JPY on Backfoot as BoJ Publish Papers Arguing for Inflation Persistence

JPY
  • USD/JPY fades toward the overnight lows to trade either of the 146.50 level as markets eye the publication of two research papers from the Bank of Japan. The pieces write in favour of inflation persistence in Japan, citing chronic labour shortages as being supportive of wages and a marked shift in corporate pricing strategies.
  • The pieces note that the views expressed are the author's, not the BoJ's, but markets remain on watch for further evidence that the BoJ could hike again this year. Markets price around 8bps of hikes by year-end, despite consensus eyeing a strong likelihood of a 25bps step at the December meeting.
  • USD/JPY continues to trade below last week's high and resistance at the 20-day EMA remains intact. The trend direction is down and recent gains appear to have been a correction. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear trend. Resistance to watch is 149.77, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a stronger correction.
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