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JPY: USD/JPY To One-Month Low, Broader USD Weakness/BoJ Speculation In Play

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USD/JPY fell as far as 150.46 in Wednesday US trade, but sits slightly higher now, last in the 151.15 region for early Thursday Asia Pac dealings. This is still up 1.30% for the Wednesday session, the best G10 performer against the USD (NZD was up a little over 1%). All G10 currencies rallied against the USD, the BBDXY index down 0.65% to sub 1280 for the session. 

  • USD/JPY intra session lows were just under the Oct 22 low (150.50). The pair is now sub the 20 (153.40) and 50-day (151.54) EMAs. Fresh downside momentum may see 150.19 targeted, the 38.2% retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 and 149.09, the Oct 21 low as the next supports.
  • Firmer BoJ hiking expectations for Dec (around 65% priced), coupled with broader USD softness aided the yen. Our London team also noted month end USD selling as part of portfolio rebalancing (likely front-loaded this week due to the Thanksgiving market holidays across Thursday & Friday), was another potential driver for the pair.
  • US yields finished lower across the benchmarks on Thursday. We had lots of US data but it was fairly close to consensus. However, the core PCE print was a reminder that inflation remains on track to overshoot median FOMC projections for Q4.
  • Equity sentiment was negative across US and EU markets, another yen positive. AUD/JPY got to lows of 97.72 (levels last seen in late Sep), but sits slightly higher now, in the 98.20/25 region.
  • Today on the data front we have weekly investment flows. Tomorrow delivers busier schedule headlined by Tokyo Nov CPI. 
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USD/JPY fell as far as 150.46 in Wednesday US trade, but sits slightly higher now, last in the 151.15 region for early Thursday Asia Pac dealings. This is still up 1.30% for the Wednesday session, the best G10 performer against the USD (NZD was up a little over 1%). All G10 currencies rallied against the USD, the BBDXY index down 0.65% to sub 1280 for the session. 

  • USD/JPY intra session lows were just under the Oct 22 low (150.50). The pair is now sub the 20 (153.40) and 50-day (151.54) EMAs. Fresh downside momentum may see 150.19 targeted, the 38.2% retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 and 149.09, the Oct 21 low as the next supports.
  • Firmer BoJ hiking expectations for Dec (around 65% priced), coupled with broader USD softness aided the yen. Our London team also noted month end USD selling as part of portfolio rebalancing (likely front-loaded this week due to the Thanksgiving market holidays across Thursday & Friday), was another potential driver for the pair.
  • US yields finished lower across the benchmarks on Thursday. We had lots of US data but it was fairly close to consensus. However, the core PCE print was a reminder that inflation remains on track to overshoot median FOMC projections for Q4.
  • Equity sentiment was negative across US and EU markets, another yen positive. AUD/JPY got to lows of 97.72 (levels last seen in late Sep), but sits slightly higher now, in the 98.20/25 region.
  • Today on the data front we have weekly investment flows. Tomorrow delivers busier schedule headlined by Tokyo Nov CPI.