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JPY Weakens In Early Trade

JPY

USD/JPY has caught a bid and last trades +16 pips at Y106.37,after hitting fresh session highs of Y106.41, with broader yen weakness creeping in. The rate has struggled to make much headway beyond Y104.40, where it peaked on Thursday. Both headline and core Tokyo CPI came in at -0.3% Y/Y vs. exp. of -0.4%.

  • This comes after the rate ground higher Thursday, staging a foray above key resistance from Feb 17 high of Y106.22. The pair drew support from a broader demand for the greenback, which gains on the back of stronger U.S. Tsy yields & month-end flows.
  • There has been speculation that the BoJ could conduct an unscheduled round of JGB purchases to cap the overnight rise in yields.
  • Kyodo News and NHK both reported that the gov't is set to decide today to lift the Covid-19 state of emergency in five prefectures (Aichi, Gifu, Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo) at the end of Feb.
  • Bulls look for a continued rally above Sep 3, 2020 high of Y106.55, towards the upper 1.0% 10-DMA envelope at Y106.78. Bears keep an eye on Feb 23 low of Y104.92, followed by trendline support at Y104.74.
  • Japanese retail sales and flash industrial output are due shortly, with housing starts and construction orders due later in the day.
  • Japanese highlights next week include final Jibun Bank M'fing PMI (Monday), unemployment, capex & company sales/profits (Tuesday), final Jibun Bank Services/Composite PMIs (Wednesday) and Consumer Confidence (Thursday).

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