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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA DATA
A reminder that China July inflation figures print today. The market consensus for headline CPI is -0.4% y/y, versus flat in June (range of forecasts is -0.9% to 0.2%). Base effects don't help from a y/y standpoint, with the July 2022 read at +2.7% (from 2.5% in June 2022). The PPI is projected at -4.0% y/y, versus -5.4% in June (range of forecasts is -5.0% to -3.8%). Base effects are working the other way for the PPI, as the July 2022 print eased to 4.2%y/y from 6.1% in June.
- China core inflation was 0.4% y/y in June, which was fresh lows back to early 2021. The China PMIs did show some improvement in terms of input price measures, with these sub-indices ticking higher in July.
- This is also consistent with less downside y/y momentum in global commodity prices. The chart below overlays this index against the China PPI for raw materials in y/y terms. Less deflation in this sub-sector could help the headline PPI measure, all else equal.
- China officials have also been stating that inflation momentum should improve as we progress through H2 2023.
Fig 1: China PPI Raw Materials Y/Y & Global Spot Commodity Prices Y/Y
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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