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Free AccessJuly IPCA-15 Inflation, Ex BCB Director Expects Hikes To At Least 14.25%
- BRL rose roughly 3% on Monday, even though sentiment across emerging-market currencies was mixed and broad USD weakness had been limited across the currency space ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision. Gains in oil and metals bolstered the supportive real price action.
- An additional positive factor for the Real’s rally on Monday stemmed from a headline from special secretary for the Treasury and Budget, Esteves Colnago, who said the spending cap still plays an important role fiscally.
- Downside adjustments to 2022 inflation forecasts within the latest BCB survey may have also been welcoming news for investors, however, the increase to year-end 2023 reading, from 5.2 to 5.3% continues to indicate the deterioration of medium-term expectations.
- Today’s key regional data release will be the mid-month IPCA inflation data from Brazil, where the annual headline rate is expected to fall to 11.41% from a prior reading of 12.04%. Data is due at 1300BST/0800ET:
- July IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 MoM, est. 0.16%, prior 0.69%
- July IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 YoY, est. 11.41%, prior 12.04%
- A former Brazil Central Bank director who helped cut interest rates to an all-time low is now advocating for more aggressive hikes than most economists expect. (BBG)
- Fabio Kanczuk, 53, who was the economic policy director when the central bank cut rates to 2% at the onset of the pandemic, says policy makers should increase the Selic benchmark rate to “at least” 14.25%, especially if the economy doesn’t retract in the fourth quarter.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.