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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
The Bloomberg survey median estimate for the July nonfarm payroll change is +858k (+850k Jun), with an average of +853k.
- The range of estimates is +350k to +1.2mn, with a 155k standard deviation (see chart). The BBG "Whisper" number is +884k (that's down from +915k at the start of the week).
- The unemployment rate is seen dipping to 5.7% (5.9% Jun).
- Private payrolls consensus is +709k (+662k Jun), though some see downside risk in the latter following the weaker-than-expected ADP number on Wednesday.
- Our data team notes: higher wages and more aggressive recruiting could have sped up job growth in the service sector, analysts say, and OpenTable data through the month signaled a recovery in restaurant reservations.
- Analysts who are looking for an above-consensus headline reading point to some common factors: a more favorable seasonal adjustment effect; the unwinding of unemployment benefits in several states helping improve labor supply; and fewer-than-usual education sector layoffs.
- Those who see a below-consensus figure point largely to supply constraints (including retirements, and Covid fears), continuing to keep a lid on participation.
BBG July Nonfarm Payrolls Analyst Survey DistributionSource: BBG
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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