Jun Labour Report Preview - 0700BST 11/8/2020

ILO UE: BBG: 4.2%; Prev (May): 3.9%

Employment Change: -295k; Prev (May): -125k

AWE: BBG: -1.1% 3m y/y; Prev (May): -0.3% 3m y/y

AWE Ex-Bonus: BBG: -0.1% 3m y/y; Prev (May): +0.7% 3m y/y

• The UK's jobless rate is expected to have ticked up slightly in Jun to 4.2% after 3.9% in May.
• The UE rate remained low throughout the crisis as furloughed workers are not considered unemployed.
• However, looking at the average actual weekly hours of work, a significant drop can be observed in May.
• The indicator registered at around 37h per week until Feb before it dropped to 31.2h in May.
• The government's job retention scheme is set to unwind until Oct which could possibly result in an uptick in unemployment in autumn as demand remains weak.
• Even though the BRC footfall monitor showed an improvement in Jul, footfall is down 42.1% y/y. The KPMG/REC's job report noted a rise in candidate supply due to an increase in redundancies.
• According to a survey conducted by CIPD and Adecco Group, one in three employers is intending to make job cuts in Sept as the government unwinds the job support scheme.