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Gold Inching Toward Bull Trigger

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  • Changes to Fed Funds / Interest Rate Paid on Excess Reserves (IOER) / ON RRP? YES, 5bp hike to both. IOER at 0.15%, ON RRP at 0.05%
  • Does the Fed announce changes to asset purchases with regard to size, duration, and/or Tsy vs MBS? NO
  • How many 'dots' imply higher rates by end-2022? End-2023? 7 dots favor higher rates by end-2022 (vs 4 in March); 13 dots favor higher rates by end-2023, taking the median to 0.6% or two hikes by end-2023
  • 2021, 2022 and 2023 core PCE inflation medians? 3.0% in 2021, 2.1% in 2022, 2.1% in 2023
  • Does the Fed announce the creation of a standing repo facility? NO
  • Any dissents to the decision? NO