June Inflation At Low End Of Eurozone Estimates

Belgian inflation slowed to 4.15% Y/Y in June from 5.20% in May on a CPI basis, per this morning's flash estimate. On a month/month basis, June saw a -0.15% drop, vs +0.38% prior.

• And HICP - the Eurozone input - saw an even bigger deceleration to 1.6% Y/Y, the lowest since July 2021, vs 2.7% prior.
• Core CPI (ex-energy/unprocessed food) was 8.14% Y/Y in June vs 8.70% prior.
• There is no consensus survey for Belgian inflation so it's hard to know where these fit versus expectations, but Belgium (4% of the Eurozone inflation basket) will come in toward the lower end of the largest 6 eurozone countries (Spanish 1.6% Y/Y HICP was the only other one likely to coming in so far below the HICP print currently estimated at 5.6% Y/Y).
• Services inflation slowed to 7.25% Y/Y vs 8.16% prior (rents to 5.90% from 6.23%), while energy contracting more quickly (-25.82% vs -21.98% prior) and food inflation decelerating as well (14.43% vs 15.51% prior).
• Energy's -3.48pp reduction from headline CPI was thus partly offset by food's +2.78pp contribution.

Source: Statbel