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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
There is no Summary of Economic Projections at the July meeting, but looking at progress since June’s forecasts:
- Assuming June Core PCE comes in at 0.2% M/M as expected on July 28th, reaching 3.9% Y/Y for Q4 would require an average monthly change of 0.28%, below the 1H average of 0.35%.
- The unemployment rate median of 4.1% would require a 0.1pp increase on average in each of the remaining 6 months of the year, and the 1.0% Y/Y Q4 GDP projection a substantial slowdown to the extent of a recession (0.2% average annualized growth in H2).
- So as it stands the inflation forecasts look slightly optimistic, with the growth/jobs projections pessimistic. In other words, further progress may be required to back off another 25bp hike.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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