MNI: FED'S BARKIN STILL CONFIDENT UNDERLYING INFLATION FALLING

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, January 3

MNI China Press Digest Jan 3:RRR Cut Mooted, Yuan, Consumption

MNI BRIEF: Beijing Boosts Consumer Trade-ins To Cellphones

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY88.5 Bln via OMO Fri

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1878 Fri; -2.29% Y/Y

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -116 BCF TO 3,413 BCF JAN 03 WK

MNI: US ISM DEC MANUF PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 49.3

MNI: UK NOV M4 MONEY SUPPLY +0% M/M, +2.9% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

STIR: Just Under 110bp OF ECB Cuts Priced Through ’25, CPI Data Eyed Next Week

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Hawkish repricing in EUR STIRs today, which stands out given the lack of meaningful movement in U.S. & UK equivalents (covered in greater detail earlier).

  • ECB-dated OIS now shows ~108bp of cuts through year-end, with the pricing of cuts very much frontloaded.
  • ~91bp of easing showing through June and outside chances of 50bp steps priced across the next two ECB decisions.
  • Euribor futures 2.0-8.0 lower, with the late whites and early reds leading the move.
  • Markets continue to price a sharper ECB cutting cycle through ’25, when compared to both the Fed & BoE.
  • Fundamentals and relative central bank justify those spreads, with tariff & growth worries further amplifying the divergence in pricing.
  • December’s preliminary Eurozone CPI data (Tuesday) headline’s next week regional release calendar.
  • Our full preview of that release can be found here.

ECB Meeting

Keep reading...Show less
139 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Hawkish repricing in EUR STIRs today, which stands out given the lack of meaningful movement in U.S. & UK equivalents (covered in greater detail earlier).

  • ECB-dated OIS now shows ~108bp of cuts through year-end, with the pricing of cuts very much frontloaded.
  • ~91bp of easing showing through June and outside chances of 50bp steps priced across the next two ECB decisions.
  • Euribor futures 2.0-8.0 lower, with the late whites and early reds leading the move.
  • Markets continue to price a sharper ECB cutting cycle through ’25, when compared to both the Fed & BoE.
  • Fundamentals and relative central bank justify those spreads, with tariff & growth worries further amplifying the divergence in pricing.
  • December’s preliminary Eurozone CPI data (Tuesday) headline’s next week regional release calendar.
  • Our full preview of that release can be found here.

ECB Meeting

Keep reading...Show less