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Kashkari Sticks To Hawkish Script

FED
  • Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari (’23 voter) unsurprisingly offers similar commentary to Thursday.
  • Inflation: Latest “Inflation coming off peak but still much too high, Fed has long way to go to get inflation to 2% goal” vs “Inflation has eased but is well above Fed’s 2% goal”.
  • Labor market: Latest “labor market still very strong but not as frothy as before” vs “not convinced US is at maximum employment”.
  • Fed Funds implied rates sit between levels seen shortly before and after the Empire Fed manufacturing miss as markets continue to digest the volatile series.
  • Cumulative moves from current 5.08% effective: +1.5bp for Jun, 07bp for Jul, -21bp for Sep, -44bp for Nov, -68bp for Dec and -92bp for Jan.

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