MNI BRIEF: Trump Likely To Let Powell Serve Full Term-Moore

MNI BRIEF: Canada Household Debt Tops $3 Trillion In 3Q

MNI BRIEF: Trump Likely To Allow Powell To Serve Term - Moore

MNI INTERVIEW2: Poland To Push For EU Defence Fund

MNI BRIEF: China To Keep Stabilising Housing Market - CEWC

MNI BRIEF: China Focus On Boosting Consumption In 2025

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Belgium ORI Facility on Friday

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -190 BCF TO 3,747 BCF DEC 06 WK

MNI: US JOBLESS CLAIMS +17K TO 242K IN DEC 07 WK

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Kashkari Three And Six Month Inflation Data “Basically There”

FED
  • Kashkari (non-voter) notes that inflation data over the past three- to six-months has been surprisingly positive, meaning good news.
  • We’re not quite there yet on the Y/Y basis but 3-month and 6-month rates are “basically there” at 2%.
  • I don’t want to say we’re done yet and will glide all the way to 2%, but fingers crossed the data is looking positive.
  • Building on yesterday's essay on supply side factors: Inflation has come down so quickly because instead of the Fed raising rates so much that we’ve put both feet on our brakes to slowdown the economy, what I think has happened is that we are braking but there’s been a surge in supply in the economy. Over the past year or so, supply chains have mostly healed from the pandemic, the services economy has reopened and a lot of workers have come off the sidelines to produce a lot more goods and services. My gut tells me that most of the disinflationary gains have been because the supply side has healed so quickly – in that context, it turns out we haven’t slammed our feet on the brakes as hard as we thought.
  • It’s also an explanation of why the yield curve is not at reliable an indicator of recession in this current episode, because in prior cycles the disinflation was caused by the Fed.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.