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KBC Outlook Upgraded; Credit Unmoved

FINANCIALS

KBC (KBC BB) reported positive 4Q23 results earlier, equity best performer amongst Eurobanks today but credit curve little changed.


  • Equity market reaction appears to centre on a positive revenue performance (1% better than consensus and +10% y/y), raised dividend (ahead of consensus) and good outlook indications for FY24. The small net profit miss has been largely ignored.
  • In credit terms, NPLs are 2.1% (from 2.0% at Sep-23) and CET1 is better at 13.8% (from 13.5%) and total capital is 17.5% (from 18.1%), so broadly as expected.
  • On outlook, the FY24 revenue guidance on NII is a range where current consensus is 19% above the bottom of that range (and 12% below the midpoint) so some upgrade there. Guidance further out also implies marginally better growth than expected.

There’s no major buyback upgrade here, which often mutes any credit performance, yet the cash curve is nearly all within 1bp of yesterday’s levels.

Credit BulletsBulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeCredit
Credit BulletsBulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeCredit

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