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Two key election ratings outlets have shifted key presidential election races back towards Kamala Harris, reversing some of the slide towards former President Donald Trump following the first presidential debate.
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball notes: “In the few weeks that Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as Democrats’ standard bearer, she has “reset” the electoral map to some degree, as she has polled better than President Biden was performing before he ended his campaign.”
- Sabato moved Minnesota, the home state of Harris’ VP nominee Governor Tim Walz (D-MN), and New Hampshire from “lean Democrat” to “likely Democrat.”
- More notably, Sabato moved Georgia back to “tossup” from “lean Republican,” reflecting Harris’ reset in the Sun Belt – the four states (Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina) that appeared to be drifting decisively away from Biden.
- Sabato adds: “…there has been no shortage of whiplash since late June… Perhaps by Labor Day, when both of the party conventions will have concluded, the nature of the race will be less fluid. But for now, we feel its warranted to move at least a few states back in the Democrats’ direction.”
- Similarly, the Cook Political Report, made three Sun Belt rating changes, moving Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia all from “Lean Republican” to “Toss up”.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Rating Changes
Source: Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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