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Key data and MPC speakers this week (1/3)

UK
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  • Last week’s MPC meeting saw data dependency take on additional importance in terms of timing the first BOE cut. However, in our eyes it also deemphasised labour market data somewhat (with services CPI taking on even more importance and PMI data on costs / output prices becoming increasingly meaningful).
  • It was said clearly a number of times in the press conference that services inflation is now the key measure, but it was Breeden’s comments on BBC Radio West Midlands on Friday that were the most explicit to us as she said: “What I am particularly focused on now is price inflation for services rather than wages. That's because we have been hearing from businesses around the country that it will be harder to pass through price increases this year than last year... If that turns out to be true, that's really good news for everybody because that means interest rates can be reduced."
  • With a significant proportion of the services CPI basket seeing annual price increases in April, next week’s data release will be the most significant ahead of the June MPC meeting, in our view. But that doesn’t mean that this week’s labour market data will not be market moving – far from it.
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  • Last week’s MPC meeting saw data dependency take on additional importance in terms of timing the first BOE cut. However, in our eyes it also deemphasised labour market data somewhat (with services CPI taking on even more importance and PMI data on costs / output prices becoming increasingly meaningful).
  • It was said clearly a number of times in the press conference that services inflation is now the key measure, but it was Breeden’s comments on BBC Radio West Midlands on Friday that were the most explicit to us as she said: “What I am particularly focused on now is price inflation for services rather than wages. That's because we have been hearing from businesses around the country that it will be harder to pass through price increases this year than last year... If that turns out to be true, that's really good news for everybody because that means interest rates can be reduced."
  • With a significant proportion of the services CPI basket seeing annual price increases in April, next week’s data release will be the most significant ahead of the June MPC meeting, in our view. But that doesn’t mean that this week’s labour market data will not be market moving – far from it.