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Key Support Levels Holding For OAT & BTP Spreads Vs. Bunds

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EGB spreads to Bunds are flat to 1bp wider.

  • 10-Year OAT/Bunds still can’t move sustainably below 70bp, while 10-Year BTP/Bunds fails to hold moves below 135bp.
  • BTP spreads have ignored yesterday’s BBG source report pointing to potential Italian government cost-cutting measures and delays to retirement.
  • From a market perspective, absorption of tomorrow’s Italian supply should be aided by ~EUR24.5bn of redemption and coupon payments.
  • Meanwhile, the French political standoff continues as parties struggle to reach a compromise on naming the next PM. The threat here is clearly tilted towards a prolonged period of political paralysis, which would heighten risks surrounding the budget.
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EGB spreads to Bunds are flat to 1bp wider.

  • 10-Year OAT/Bunds still can’t move sustainably below 70bp, while 10-Year BTP/Bunds fails to hold moves below 135bp.
  • BTP spreads have ignored yesterday’s BBG source report pointing to potential Italian government cost-cutting measures and delays to retirement.
  • From a market perspective, absorption of tomorrow’s Italian supply should be aided by ~EUR24.5bn of redemption and coupon payments.
  • Meanwhile, the French political standoff continues as parties struggle to reach a compromise on naming the next PM. The threat here is clearly tilted towards a prolonged period of political paralysis, which would heighten risks surrounding the budget.