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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TURKEY
Opposition presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu leads in the final opinion poll from respected outlet Konda ahead of the 14 May first round election. The poll, released after the official ban on polls being published came in on 4 May, shows Kılıçdaroğlu on 49.3%, just short of the 50%+1 required to avoid a second round run-off on 28 May.
- Konda: Kılıçdaroğlu (Nation): 49.3% (+3.8), Erdoğan (People): 43.7% (-0.9), Oğan (ATA): 4.8% (+0.2), İnce (MP): 2.2% (-3.1), Fieldwork: 6-7 May, chgs w/29-30 April, 3,480 respondents.
- Konda has relatively good form in polling Turkish elections.
- In the previous presidential election, it gave Erdoğan 51.9% to his eventual 52.6%, with then-CHP candidate Muharrem İnce polling 28% to his eventual 30.6%.
- In the most recent major election it polled (Istanbul's June 2019 mayoral election) winner Ekrem İmamoğlu from the CHP polled 54% to his eventual 54.2%, while AKP's Binali Yıldırım polled 45% and won 45%.
- Earlier, we notedthat Muharrem İnce will be holding a presser at 1400 local time, with speculation that he could withdraw from the race and offer his support to Kılıçdaroğlu. If even less than half of İnce's support shifted to Kılıçdaroğlu in the poll below it would give the opposition Nation Alliance candidate a first-round win.
Chart 1. First Round Presidential Election Opinion Polling, %
Source: Konda
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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