Kilicdaroglu Seen As Favourite Ahead Of Turkish Presidential Elections

Polling and betting market data suggests that National Alliance candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu (CHP) is now favoured to oust Turkish President Recep Erdogan at the Turkish general election on May 14.

• Politico reports that Erdogan is facing the stiffest electoral test of his electoral career with a senior administration official stating, “It’s 50-50. People feel change is coming.”
• Recent polls have given Kilicdaroglu a 10+ point lead, with the caveat that polling in Turkey is often muddied by partisan privately commissioned surveys.
• Kilicdaroglu's ambitions are also complicated by the stubborn campaign of former CHP candidate Muharrem Ince who has a strong following among young voters and has declined to confirm if he will step aside for the "anti-Erdogan" National Alliance.
• Political science professor Berk Esen told AFP: "This is bad news for the opposition. Ince's ability to draw votes from the CHP... could have a spoiler effect and force the presidential election to a second round."
• Eurasia Group analyst Emre Peker said "Whether [Ince] and the CHP bury the hatchet... will be key to Kilicdaroglu's prospects in the second round."
• There is also the additional complication of the earthquake aftermath which has left hundreds of thousands of voters displaced and a potentially disruptive emergency decree in place.

Figure 1: Turkish Presidential Election, % Implied Probability of Winning

Source: Smarkets