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Koruna Inches Higher But Stays Close To Cyclical Lows

CZK

EUR/CZK remains in the vicinity of recent cyclical highs, last trading -0.012 at 25.475, as local headline flow throws market participants no curve balls. The RSI remains in overbought territory as the spot rate looks for fresh catalysts. The next key level on the topside is 25.936, the high print of Mar 2, 2022. Meanwhile, should today's selling pressure intensify, bears could eventually challenge Jan 2 high of 24.867.

  • Some CNB officials have emphasised the importance of the koruna in determining the pace of the rate-cutting cycle, with Deputy Governor Zamrazilova reaffirming this message yesterday. Commerzbank wrote that "such statements (...) have more to do with verbal fire-fighting" and note that they are at odds with Governor Michl's earlier assertion that the exchange rate was not a major factor in the latest rate decision.
  • CZGB yields are slightly lower across the curve. The Finance Ministry said it would sell CZK19bn of government bonds in March versus CZK22bn in February.
  • The PX Index is 0.4% better off on the day, looking to re-test the recent cyclical high at 1,494.
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