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Koruna On Defensive Ahead Of Crucial Bank Board Meeting Outcome

CZK

The koruna is the worst performer in the CE3 FX space today ahead of the much awaited monetary policy meeting in Czechia, with EUR/CZK last seen +0.007 at 24.494. A clearance of Dec 19 high of 24.580 would expose Oct 26, 2023/Jul 7, 2022 highs of 24.747/24.979. EUR/CZK overnight implied volatility has soared to its best levels since late March in anticipation of today's rate decision.

  • The CNB may reduce its two-week repo rate by 25bp as soon as today, inaugurating an easing cycle, albeit the consensus view is that it's a very close call. Czech central bankers have famously stuck with a very cautious stance, but the macroeconomic conditions may be ripe for a cut. We have described the context of the decision in our preview. As a reminder, the decision will be announced at 13:30GMT/14:30CET and followed by a press conference at 14:45GMT/15:45CET.
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