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Koruna Outperforms Ahead of CNB Decision This Week

CZK

EURCZK dips a further 0.30% Monday, mirroring the EURPLN move and looking through the weaker-than-expected GDP data released earlier today. The pair has now reversed ~70% of the July 18 – July 24 rally, extending the Koruna's recovery following last week's push back against dovish market bets by CNB officials. The 50-day EMA, which intersects at 23.803, marks initial support for the cross.

  • The extension of Friday’s move lower precedes the CNB rate decision on Thursday, where some sell-side desks expect officials to again push back against market pricing of rate cuts later this year.
  • GDP grew 0.1% in Q2, less than policy makers expected, according to a flash estimate published today. While data for April to June trailed the central bank’s forecast, they showed the first quarterly expansion in a year.
  • CZGBs trade softer and underperforms both its CEE peers and EGBs more broadly. The yield curve trades flatter and 2-9bps higher, though respects recent ranges.
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