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KPMG-REC Report on Jobs: Permanent Wage Growth Accelerates

UK DATA

The KPMG-REC Report on Jobs showed permanent pay growth remaining sticky but there were some signs that the quantities side of the labour market is continuing to soften. There also appear to be some skills mismatches in the labour market which may be exacerbating the pay growth, despite a more general increase in the availability of candidates. Overall, this is a relatively mixed report for MPC members, but we place more emphasis on the persistence of wage pressures.

  • The rate of pay increases for permanent workers rose at the fastest rate in 8 months, whilst the rise in rate of pay for temporary workers slowed to the March 2024 level. The press release notes the increased permanent pay was due to both a lack of availability of "suitable" candidates and in recognition of "ongoing cost of living pressures."
  • However, the availability of staff index remained at elevated levels, albeit growing at a slightly slower rate than in May. This contrast may suggest that there is a skills mismatch between those looking for work and the desirable characteristics that employers are looking for.
  • Permanent placements continued to fall in June, with the rate of contraction the steepest in the last three months. The press release highlights this was due to "lack of demand" and "that the general election had caused some uncertainty" resulting in a "brake" on recruitment activity.
  • However, temporary placements rose for the first time since October 2023, taking it above the breakeven 50 level. This increase makes sense to us given the lack of permanent hires due to elevated uncertainty.
  • Data collected June 12 - June 24.
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