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KPN +2-3bps As Q4 Rev/EBITDAal In-Line With Small Miss On OCF

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  • Q4 adj-Rev in line with €1.4bn consensus (+4.3% YoY) driven by a ~€100mn beat in service revs of €1.3bn (+4.2% YoY) which fed through to in-line adj-EBITDAal of €611mn (+2.2% YoY). Q4 CapEx was ~€50mn higher-than-expected while OCF was ~€80mn lower-than-exp after costs rose 3.2% YoY on non-service hardware expenses and personnel expenses.
  • TTM adj-EBITDAal leverage came in at 2.3x from 2.4x at Q3, giving more room against the <2.5x target and trending towards BBB+ peers like Orange, while TTM adj-EBITDAal coverage fell to 10.5x from 12.3x.
  • FY24 and CAGR outlook to FY27 was already revealed at the CMD though FY24 FCF guidance raised marginally (+€10mn) while the main metrics remained flat: 3% service-rev/adj-EBITDAal growth, ~7% CAGR in FCF to FY27 back-loaded due to taxes, interest and capex profile driven by fibre finalisation).
  • We view the results as stable, as expected, given the clear guidance given at the CMD. Higher operating costs are expected to continue – we note the labour agreement in early-Jan committed to wage increases more than the guided service/rev/EBITDAal growth.
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