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KRW: Spot USD/KRW Under 1380, Oct Trade Data Soon

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Spot USD/KRW finished up extended Thursday trade near 1377. The 1 month NDF finished NY trade at 1372.35, a won gain of 0.40%. The won is tracking comfortably firmer this week (spot ended last week above 1390), as the authorities, right up to the Prime Minister, expressed concern around FX volatility. The won was still down 4.73% for Oct as a whole. 

  • Month end flows from exporters may have helped as well as Thursday trade unfolded. Ticking into November may cool such flows, although the 1390/1400 region should still see some resistance emerge though.
  • The equity lead for the Kospi today is clearly negative, the SOX fell a further 4% in Thursday trade, the MSCI IT was off 3.34%. US equity futures are a little higher in early Friday trade, as with Amazon up in late Thursday US trade post earnings.
  • To recap, the Kospi fell 1.45% yesterday, while offshore investors sold -$510mn of local stocks, bring Oct outflows to -$3.4bn.
  • Coming up shortly we have Oct trade data. Exports in y/y terms are expected at 7.0%, little changed from the Sep 7.5% pace, although there are signs of slowing export growth. The trade surplus is projected at $4.1bn.
  • Next week we have the US election, where a Trump victory and associated rise in tariffs is seen as a clear negative for the South Korean economy. Local research points to a contraction of up to 0.67% (see this BBG link for more details). 
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Spot USD/KRW finished up extended Thursday trade near 1377. The 1 month NDF finished NY trade at 1372.35, a won gain of 0.40%. The won is tracking comfortably firmer this week (spot ended last week above 1390), as the authorities, right up to the Prime Minister, expressed concern around FX volatility. The won was still down 4.73% for Oct as a whole. 

  • Month end flows from exporters may have helped as well as Thursday trade unfolded. Ticking into November may cool such flows, although the 1390/1400 region should still see some resistance emerge though.
  • The equity lead for the Kospi today is clearly negative, the SOX fell a further 4% in Thursday trade, the MSCI IT was off 3.34%. US equity futures are a little higher in early Friday trade, as with Amazon up in late Thursday US trade post earnings.
  • To recap, the Kospi fell 1.45% yesterday, while offshore investors sold -$510mn of local stocks, bring Oct outflows to -$3.4bn.
  • Coming up shortly we have Oct trade data. Exports in y/y terms are expected at 7.0%, little changed from the Sep 7.5% pace, although there are signs of slowing export growth. The trade surplus is projected at $4.1bn.
  • Next week we have the US election, where a Trump victory and associated rise in tariffs is seen as a clear negative for the South Korean economy. Local research points to a contraction of up to 0.67% (see this BBG link for more details).