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Kugler - Every Meeting Is Live, Also Thinking About Path Rather Than End Point For Rates

FED
  • Q: Is March a live meeting?
  • A: Every meeting is live. We have to react to new conditions, to information that is coming at us. We're not going to make a decision now for something that is made seven weeks from now.
Paraphrasing Kugler's discussion on long-term interest rates.
  • Q: In the Fed’s quarterly forecasts, the median projection is for nominal interest rates to settle out at 2.5%. A number of commentators think there are reasons this could be higher.
  • Kugler: There is a lot of uncertainty in measuring the neutral rate. Deficits, persistence of demand and supply side disruption, technology and population etc. More important than thinking where we’re going to end up is where the path will be and what factors determine where we go next. Disinflation is clearly happening and it’s happening at a good pace. We see good reasons it will continue, and growth and employment have been resilient – that side of the mandate moving in the right direction. Having said that, we’ve seen historical incidents when the u/e rate rises suddenly and that will influence our path.
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