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Labour Halts Decline But National & ACT Could Still Form Government

NEW ZEALAND

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's Labour Paty has regained some ground in the latest 1News Kantar Public Poll, but the results still suggest that the main opposition National Party could govern in coalition with ACT if a general election was held today.

  • Support for Labour edged higher to 34%, up 1 percentage point from seven weeks ago, the first increase since December 2020. National was steady at 37%, remaining the most popular party. ACT lost 2 percentage points, while the Greens were steady, sitting on 9% each.
  • Simulations showed that if the results were replicated in a general election, they would translate into 49 seats for the Nationals and 12 seats for ACT, which would be enough to form a governing coalition in New Zealand's 120-strong parliament.
  • Jacinda Ardern remained the most preferred Prime Minister, with her rating steady at 30%. The poll put National leader Luxon on 21%, down 1 percentage point versus the previous survey. When asked to choose between Ardern and Luxon, 47% said they preferred the incumbent, while 41% backed the current opposition leader, with the gap widening slightly in Ardern's favour.
  • 1News political editor Jessica Mutch McKay commented that the poll was "not a fabulous poll for anyone," as National’s “momentum has really stopped in their climb,” while Labour could have counted on a larger boost from Ardern's publicised meetings with world leaders during her London and New York visits.
Fig. 1: 1News Kantar Public Poll Result For September 27 - Distribution Of Seats

Source: 1News

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