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Breakevens Slide After 10Y TIPS Auction Tails

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Latest general election opinion polling from YouGov shows the main opposition Labour party with an 11% lead over Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative party, the widest Labour lead over the Conservatives in a YouGov poll since December 2013.

  • Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 40% (+2), CON: 29% (+1), LDM: 11% (-2), GRN: 6% (-1), RFM: 6% (+2), SNP: 5% (=). Via @YouGov, 12-13 Jan. Changes w/ 11-12 Jan.
  • The sustained revelations about rule-breaking parties at Downing St during COVID lockdowns in 2020 and 2021 continue to damage public support for the gov't, with the latest story alleging a party took place on the eve of the funeral of HRH Prince Phillip, the Duke of Edinburgh, consort to Queen Elizabeth II.
  • Johnson remains vulnerable to a leadership challenge. A total of 54 Conservative MPs have to submit letters of no confidence in the PM to the chair of the 1922 Committee of backbench Conservative MPs to trigger a contest. At present it is impossible to know how many letters have been sumbitted so far.
  • FT carrying comments from unnamed Conservative sources suggesting that Johnson could hang onto power in the short-to-medium term, but if the May local council elections go poorly that could be the trigger for his ouster.
  • Should be noted that while this latest poll put the Conservatives a wide distance behind Labour, less than 18 months on from the previous worst poll in Dec 2013 the Conservatives went onto win a majority under PM David Cameron.