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Labour market data due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • UK labour market data will be released at 7:00BST. This is probably the second biggest data release for the UK at present, second in importance to only inflation data (which are due tomorrow).
  • The two key parts for markets to watch are average earnings. With the labour market tight, total average earnings are expected to rise to annual rate of 5.4%Y/Y in the three months to February, up from 4.8%. Excluding bonuses, underlying earnings growth is seen stretching to 4.0%Y/Y from 3.8% in the three months to January.
  • Employment on the HMRC payroll measure for March will also be watched - this is expected at 125k, while the "headline" employment and unemployment numbers which cover the three months to February will probably be dismissed as too outdated.
  • There is a potential for a market move on this release, but its usually more normal to see a bigger move for GBP after SONIA futures open at 7:30BST if we are to see a significant move.
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