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  • The MNI Markets team still place a lot more emphasis on wage data than quantity data given the low response rate to the LFS.
  • In terms of private sector regular pay, analysts generally look for a deceleration from 6.1%Y/Y in the 3-months to January to 5.8%Y/Y in the 3-months to February.
  • Looking at the single month metric, this implies a fall to 5.4%Y/Y or 5.5%Y/Y (assuming no revisions to previous single month numbers).
  • Effectively this would leave the 3m/3m annualised rate at a similar pace to the 3.3% seen in January.
  • However, it also implies a 0.8ppt or 0.9ppt fall from the single month Y/Y rate from 3 months ago (whereas in January there was only a 0.4ppt fall relative to the same cohort 3 months earlier).
  • Together with possible early wage rises ahead of the National Living Wage increase (which comes into effect in April), we think that there are greater upside risks to the consensus view of the wage number.
  • Furthermore, a print in line with consensus expectations would likely be significant in that it would be very likely that the Bank of England’s forecast for Q1 would be undershot.
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  • The MNI Markets team still place a lot more emphasis on wage data than quantity data given the low response rate to the LFS.
  • In terms of private sector regular pay, analysts generally look for a deceleration from 6.1%Y/Y in the 3-months to January to 5.8%Y/Y in the 3-months to February.
  • Looking at the single month metric, this implies a fall to 5.4%Y/Y or 5.5%Y/Y (assuming no revisions to previous single month numbers).
  • Effectively this would leave the 3m/3m annualised rate at a similar pace to the 3.3% seen in January.
  • However, it also implies a 0.8ppt or 0.9ppt fall from the single month Y/Y rate from 3 months ago (whereas in January there was only a 0.4ppt fall relative to the same cohort 3 months earlier).
  • Together with possible early wage rises ahead of the National Living Wage increase (which comes into effect in April), we think that there are greater upside risks to the consensus view of the wage number.
  • Furthermore, a print in line with consensus expectations would likely be significant in that it would be very likely that the Bank of England’s forecast for Q1 would be undershot.