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Labour market data due at 7:00GMT

UK DATA
  • There increasingly looks like there is too much priced into rate expectations for the UK, and the market will be very vulnerable to either a soft labour market data print this morning or a soft inflation print tomorrow.
  • The focus for markets today will be on the wage data and payrolls data.
  • Payrolls are seen increasing by 133,000 in January, remaining strong following a slowdown from the record high of 184,000 in December.
  • Weekly earnings growth is expected to fall a little to 3.6% ex bonus (from 3.8%) and 3.8% inc bonus (from 4.2%). This is largely a compositional shift in employment rather than an explicit slowing in wage growth.
  • Consensus expects to see the ILO unemployment rate in the three months to December remain stable at November's 4.1%. Pre-pandemic the unemployment rate hovered around the 3.8% mark.
  • Jobless claims dipped by 43,300 in December, a slower reading than the 95,000 decline recorded the month prior.
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