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Labour market data due at 7:00GMT

UK DATA
  • This morning's UK labour market data remains one of the remaining key datapoints for the MPC ahead of next week's policy decision (along with next week's CPI print).
  • Average weekly earnings data are expected to slip back a little in the 3-months to January versus the 3-months to February. If we do not see this pullback in earnings, there is likely to be more concern among MPC members surrounding inflation persistence.
  • Markets price around 17bp for next week's meeting with a terminal rate which is only 35bp higher than current rates by August. This is down from pricing of 27bp for the March meeting on Wednesday and a terminal rate of around 93bp by September.
  • Despite the moves seen in markets yesterday we still think a decent surprise in this data could result in a noteworthy move in market pricing for both next week's meeting and the terminal rate.
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