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Labour market data due at 7:00GMT: Focus on wages

UK DATA
  • Key changes to the labour market report have been delayed further with some improvements to LFS pushed back to next month’s release and the Transformed Labour Market Survey (TLFS) is now expected in H1-2024 rather than by March.
  • However, wage data is not part of this survey – and hasn’t suffered from the same fall in response rate, and therefore remains an important indicator to watch.
  • Consensus expectations look for private sector AWE ex bonus to fall notably in the 3-months to November to 6.6%Y/Y. This would be considerably below the Bank’s November MPR forecast that expected a 7.2%Y/Y print in the 3-months to December and closer to the Bank’s forecast as for the 3-months to March 2024 (6.5%Y/Y).
  • The BOE doesn’t publish a forecast for this, but headline regular AWE is also expected to fall back 0.7ppt to 6.6%Y/Y in the 3-months to end November.
  • As we noted in our preview of this week's labour market and inflation data (see full previews here), we think that softer data this week may reduce the number of hawkish dissenters and increase the probability of a vote for a cut from Dhingra. It would probably also increase the probability that the Bank’s February communication potentially removes the tightening bias.
  • We also think that the we could challenge what we see as the upper limit of around 140bp of cuts priced in for 2024 on soft data this week. However, we would again see this as stretched positioning, and a good opportunity to fade more extreme pricing of cuts.
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