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Labour market data due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • The main domestic event of the week in our view will be the release of the UK labour market data at 7:00BST.
  • This has been of less importance to the market recently than CPI data, but we think this is due to the magnitude of the surprises in the CPI data relative to the Bank’s forecasts. Labour market data by contrast has been much closer to the Bank’s forecasts.
  • In terms of pricing for June, we don’t think the labour market data will push things either way too far, but further out the curve is another story, in our view.
  • CPI data due next week (and available to the MPC next Monday morning under pre-release access) will continue to remain key as it continues to remain stickier than both the Bank and most other forecasters expect.

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