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Labour market data points to continued strength

UK DATA
  • Overall initial reaction to the labour market data is the wage numbers will be a concern for the MPC. They continue to creep up which will put pressure on second round inflationary effects.
  • Also the inactivity rate has increased further, up 0.2ppt on the quarter to 21.6%. This is something that has been highlighted in recent MPC members' speeches - and is contributing to shortages within the labour force and helping to contribute to the rising wages.
  • On the payroll numbers this also rose.
  • So in terms of monetary policy this data points to more continued strength in the labour market than had been expected.
  • However, of possible concern is the unemployment rate uptick (by 0.1pp to 3.6% 3m/yoy).The higher September rate of 3.8% fed through to the 3-month change. This is only in part due to participation rates, and as such the September ILO data hints at the possible onset of a cooling jobs market.
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