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SWEDEN: Labour Market Still Weakening According To PES Data

SWEDEN
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The Swedish labour market continued to gradually loosen in November, according to Public Employment Service data. This underscores the Riksbank’s guidance for further rate cuts in December and H1 2025, even as inflation has tracked above the September MPR projection in recent months (see our earlier note for details).

  • The unemployment claims rate ticked up to 7.0% in November (vs 6.9% prior). This was the 16th consecutive month that the 3mma of the claims rate has moved higher.
  • On the demand side, vacancies fell below 90k for the first month since March 2024 (and before that, February 2021), 24% lower than prevailing levels a year ago.
  • This meant the vacancy to unemployment claims ratio fell to 0.24, its lowest since early 2021.
  • However, the 3mma of redundancy notices did fall for the second month to 5.5k.
  • November LFS unemployment data is due tomorrow morning, which will provide another piece of the labour market puzzle ahead of the Riksbank decision next Thursday.

 

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The Swedish labour market continued to gradually loosen in November, according to Public Employment Service data. This underscores the Riksbank’s guidance for further rate cuts in December and H1 2025, even as inflation has tracked above the September MPR projection in recent months (see our earlier note for details).

  • The unemployment claims rate ticked up to 7.0% in November (vs 6.9% prior). This was the 16th consecutive month that the 3mma of the claims rate has moved higher.
  • On the demand side, vacancies fell below 90k for the first month since March 2024 (and before that, February 2021), 24% lower than prevailing levels a year ago.
  • This meant the vacancy to unemployment claims ratio fell to 0.24, its lowest since early 2021.
  • However, the 3mma of redundancy notices did fall for the second month to 5.5k.
  • November LFS unemployment data is due tomorrow morning, which will provide another piece of the labour market puzzle ahead of the Riksbank decision next Thursday.